The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the US fell by 0.3% in January 2025 to 101.5 (2016=100), after a 0.1% increase in December 2024 (upwardly revised from an initially estimated decline of 0.1%). Overall, the LEI recorded a 0.9% decline in the six-month period ending January 2025, much less than its 1.7% decline over the previous six months.

"The US LEI declined in January, reversing most of the gains from the previous two months," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Consumers' assessments of future business conditions turned more pessimistic in January, which—alongside fewer weekly hours worked in manufacturing—drove the monthly decline. However, manufacturing orders have almost stabilized after weighing heavily on the Index since 2022, and the yield spread contributed positively for the first time since November 2022. Overall, just four of the LEI's 10 components were negative in January. In addition, the LEI's six-month and annual growth rates continued to trend upward, signaling milder obstacles to US economic activity ahead. We currently forecast that real GDP for the US will expand by 2.3% in 2025, with stronger growth in the first half of the year."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the US rose by 0.3% in January 2025 to 114.3 (2016=100), after also increasing 0.3% in December 2024. As a result, the CEI rose by 1.0% over the six-month period between July 2024 and January 2025, close to its 0.9% growth over the previous six months. The CEI's four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. They all improved in January, with the largest positive contribution coming from industrial production for the second consecutive month. This was followed by personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and payroll employment.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index^® (LAG) for the US increased by 0.5% to 119.3 (2016=100) in January 2025, after no change in December 2024. As a result, the LAG's six-month change turned positive to 0.3% growth for the first time since the summer of 2024.

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, March 20, 2025, at 10 A.M. ET.