US retail sales over Black Friday – Cyber Monday (BFCM) weekend may set a new record, surpassing $75 billion in sales. The new forecast from Bain & Company underscores the importance of the key shopping weekend and highlights significant year-over-year growth of around 5%, outpacing Bain's overall holiday sales growth forecast of 3% for the entire holiday season.

Using proprietary data from Pyxis, Bain's consumer intelligence division, trends show that consumer shopping patterns remain focused around the major shopping days of the season, with Black Friday again expected to rank as the top sales day for retailers. Cyber Monday, however, has seen its relevance fade as e-commerce growth slows and many shoppers cite the convenience of online shopping and sales days beyond the core weekend. In 2023, the day before Thanksgiving emerged as a major shopping day, likely influenced by Thanksgiving Day store closures and Bain expects that this year that trend may continue.

Retail momentum will continue to be strong throughout the weekends leading up to Christmas, with peak shopping days projected on December 21^st (the Saturday before Christmas) and December 23^rd (the Monday before Christmas.) These late-in-season shopping surges are expected to help give an additional push to retailers achieving strong results in overall holiday shopping this season.

"Despite our slower growth forecasts for retailers this holiday season, Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend will likely be a bright spot, capturing its highest share of holiday spending in the last five years," said Aaron Cheris, partner in Bain & Company's Retailpractice. "This has to do partly with more stores closing on Thanksgiving Day as well as how the calendar falls this year, with a later-than-usual Thanksgiving. Black Friday is a prime opportunity for retailers to refine their promotion strategies, ensure adequate inventory, and perfect in-store experiences. The retailers who are ready to meet consumer demand this season and prioritize this key holiday shopping window will come out ahead."

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