Expert Panel Upgrades Home Price Growth Outlook, Cites Supply Constraints and Lower Mortgage Rates

Staff Report From Georgia CEO

Wednesday, April 17th, 2024

A panel of housing experts expects annual national home price growth of 3.8% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, according to the Q1 2024 Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMAHome Price Expectations Survey(HPES), produced in partnership with Pulsenomics, LLC. The HPES polls over 100 experts across the housing and mortgage industry and academia for forecasts of national home price percentage changes in each of the coming five calendar years, as measured by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index (FNM-HPI).

The panel's latest estimates of national home price growth are higher than last quarter's expectations of 2.4% for 2024 and 2.7% for 2025. Additionally, an increased share of panelists indicated higher upside risk to their home price forecasts – 41 percent in Q1 2024 compared to 26 percent in Q4 2023 – with a majority citing ongoing housing supply constraints and lower mortgage rates as the basis for that belief. The panel also projects a median 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6% by the end of 2024. Complete results of the Q1 2024 survey can be found here.

"On average, our panelists continue to expect home price growth to decelerate this year, but their overall outlook was revised upward this quarter, with most now reporting greater upside risk to home prices than downside risk," said Hamilton Fout, Fannie Mae Vice President of Economics. "If mortgage rates move toward the panel-predicted six percent median rate by the end of 2024, we would expect this to be supportive of continued home price growth, particularly given the persistent supply-side challenges facing the housing market."

Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics, added: "This is a positive outlook for those who already own a home, but as the dearth of listings boosts both prevailing values and expected future prices, the affordability concerns of prospective homebuyers are unlikely to fade soon."

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