The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in May 2023 to 106.7 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in April. The LEI is down 4.3 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months from May to November 2022.

"The US LEI continued to fall in May as a result of deterioration in the gauges of consumer expectations for business conditions, ISM® New Orders Index, a negative yield spread, and worsening credit conditions," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "The US Leading Index has declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity ahead. Rising interest rates paired with persistent inflation will continue to further dampen economic activity. While we revised our Q2 GDP forecast from negative to slight growth, we project that the US economy will contract over the Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 period. The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in May 2023 to 110.2 (2016=100), after rising by 0.3 percent in April. The CEI is now up 0.8 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—down slightly from the 0.9 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. The CEI's component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. While recent data for industrial production have contributed negatively to coincident index, sales, employment, and income growth remained positive.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.1 percent in May 2023 to 118.4 (2016 = 100), reversing a decline of 0.1 percent in April. The LAG is up 0.6 percent over the six-month period from November 2022 to April 2023, much slower than its growth rate of 3.3 percent over the previous six months.

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, July 20, 2023, at 10 A.M. ET.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the U.S.: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or "leads") turning points in the business cycle by around 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM^® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500^® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index^™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/