Thanks to two fewer selling days and an early Labor Day holiday, the car shopping experts at Edmunds forecast September will be a down month for the auto industry, forecasting that 1,267,607 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.1 million. This reflects a 23% decrease in sales from August 2019 and an 11.6% decrease from September 2018.

"September auto sales look a little bleak on paper, but it's just a matter of a tough year-over-year comparison," explained Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds' senior manager of industry analysis. "This is one of those times when you have to look at the full quarter to get a more accurate perspective of what's really happening in the market."

Edmunds experts forecast that 4,317,448 new cars and trucks will be sold in the third quarter of 2019, reflecting a 3.1% decrease from the second quarter of 2019, but a 0.8% increase from the third quarter of 2018. This would mark the first quarter this year that auto sales will be up on a quarterly basis compared to 2018.

"All year long we've been talking about high prices and rising interest rates keeping shoppers on the sidelines, but in the third quarter those pressures eased up just enough to get consumers back in a buying mood," Acevedo said. "If this momentum continues, we expect a solid finish to the year."

SEPTEMBER SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.7 million vehicles in September 2019, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.8% of total sales. An estimated 3.3 million used vehicles will be sold in September 2019, for a SAAR of 39.7 million (compared to 3.4 million — or a SAAR of 39.8 million — in August).

SEPTEMBER MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Q3 SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Q3 MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER