The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. Increased Slightly in November
Friday, December 21st, 2018
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in November to 111.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in October, and a 0.6 percent increase in September.
"The LEI increased slightly in November, but its overall pace of improvement has slowed in the last two months," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. "Despite the recent volatility in stock prices, the strengths among the leading indicators have been widespread. Solid GDP growth at about 2.8 percent should continue in early 2019, but the LEI suggests the economy is likely to moderate further in the second half of 2019."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in November to 104.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in October, and a 0.2 percent increase in September.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in November to 106.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in October and a 0.2 percent decline in September.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions