Consumer Confidence in Housing Hits All-Time High

Staff Report

Wednesday, March 8th, 2017

The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index increased by 5.6 percentage points in February to 88.3, a new all-time high. Five of the six components that comprise the HPSI were up, and three hit record highs. The net share of Americans who reported that now is a good time to buy rose 11 percentage points, while the net share who believe that now is a good time to sell rose 7 percentage points. Consumers also demonstrated greater confidence about not losing their jobs, with the net share rising 9 percentage points. On net, the share of respondents reporting that their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased 4 percentage points. Additionally, more Americans expect home prices to go up, with the net share rising 3 percentage points. The net share of those who think mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months remained unchanged for the third consecutive month.

"The latest post-election surge in optimism puts the HPSI at its highest level since its starting point in 2011. Millennials showed especially strong increases in job confidence and income gains, a necessary precursor for increased housing demand from first-time homebuyers," said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. "Preliminary research results from our team find that millennials are accelerating the rate at which they move out of their parents' homes and form new households. However, continued slow supply growth implies continued strong price appreciation and affordability constraints facing millennials and first-time buyers in many markets."

HOME PURCHASE SENTIMENT INDEX – COMPONENT HIGHLIGHTS

Fannie Mae's 2017 Home Purchase Sentiment Index increased in February by 5.6 percentage points to 88.3. The HPSI is also up 5.6 percentage points compared with the same time last year.

  • The net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a house rose 11 percentage points to 40%, rebounding strongly from last month's survey low.
  • The net percentage of those who say it is a good time to sell increased by 7 percentage points to 22%, reaching a new survey high.
  • The net share of Americans who say that home prices will go up increased by 3 percentage points in February to 45%.
  • The net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next twelve months remained constant for the third consecutive month at -55%.
  • The net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job rose 9 percentage points to a new survey high of 78%.
  • The net share of Americans who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago rose 4 percentage points to 19% in February, continuing the increase from January and reaching a new survey high.